Global Warming And Changing Geo-Politics:
I can scatter the clouds,
Deluge the sea, or heal someone
Who has been suffering long and awaits death,
But to teach a fool,
Is beyond my capacity
- Lal Ded
When we read those lines by Lal Ded, we came under the impression that Lal Ded was talking about the unharnessed human beings who are a celebrating a grand feast of environmental upset. Alas! Lal Ded was talking about something else, something more humane.
Mussolini once commented that some nations are powerful, while others are not. While some states prepare to accumulate more power, others prepare for the worst. This leads to a conflict among nations. Because of conflict, it is quite evident that human activities in all spheres of life will be modified.
This becomes a concern. Since human activities were changed, there arose a problem with the earth’s sustainability. This causes serious environmental problems. Such problems are ‘shared between’ states or ‘common to’ them (Sinha, 2006). As such, policies are required to maintain the environmental stability of the world. Before addressing the sole issue of global warming, we would like to throw some light on the climatic impact and its importance on security. Security, in simple terms, can be defined as a danger, a deviation from standard (Dabelko, 2002). This security, according to (Sinha, 2006) has the potential to pose a serious threat and hence has been considered as one of the important issues in studies of International Relations.
In this regard, Prof. Ramaswamy Iyer has summed up the implications of global warming in South Asia. In his opinion, the worst consequence of climatic change that South Asia will face is scarcity of water, which is going to get worse. Apart from water, other natural resources will also get scarce, and hence, according to Prof. Iyer, the nation countries will be competing with each other to grab a lion’s share. This will give rise to serious threats.
Apart from Prof. Iyer, the concerned we would like to cite Thomas Homer-Dixon’s work regarding national security and the scarcity of resources due to environmental changes. Homer-Dixon (1994) observes that such scarcity of natural resources leads to conflict between nations and such scarcity has extremely ‘insidious’ effects on nations. Such insidious effects may take the form of population migration, economic and agricultural degradation, and political weakness leading to ‘subnational violence’.
Impact of Environment Changes on South Asia:
According to Britannica, South Asia is a ‘subregion of Asia, consisting of the Indo-Gangetic plains and peninsular India. It includes the countries of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; Afghanistan and the Maldives are often considered part of South Asia as well.’ Geographically it looks like this:
It can be seen that all the nations except Sri Lanka and Maldives share land borders with India. Regarding the aquatic connection between the nations, several rivers act as a mode of connection between them, along with a sea coastline stretching between Pakistan in the west to Bangladesh in the east. Sinha (2006) mentions that the integrity between these nations is disrupted by a strong, uninterrupted undercurrent of political rivalries between nations whose governance varies largely from ‘democracy in India to a fledging one in Bangladesh to a monarchy in Bhutan to an authoritarianism in Pakistan.’ Because of such differences between politics, governance and resources, the following challenges are faced:
Water
None of the countries of South Asia have entered into the water stress zone (south-asian.com, 2002), yet nearing the zone. Of all the South Asian countries, it is estimated that India will enter the water stress zone by 2025, followed by Pakistan and Sri Lanka (Seckler et al., 1998). India faces another problem of water degradation. It has been found that 80% of India’s 14 perennial rivers contain polluted waters, with the nation discharging 16,51,250 kg of organic water pollutants on a daily basis (World Resources Institute, 2003).
Population overload:
One of the main reasons behind the scarcity of resources is population overload. India with a population of 1.38 billion is estimated to overtake China by 2050 (Sinha, 2006). However, Bangladesh and Pakistan are also densely populated countries and this leads to an over-exploitation of resources in these areas. With the rise in population, rises energy consumption. To meet the energy consumption of this region, there are unclean sources that are being used leading to an environmental imbalance and hence a temperature rise.
Global Warming in South Asia and Responses to it:
South Asia endures the maximum risk due to climatic change and has been identified as the most disaster-prone zone in the world (Kelkar & Bhadwal, 2007). As per R K Pachauri’s report, the climatic change is likely to continue till 2100 on a global basis.
South Asia according to the same report will see a very hot pre-industrial period with soil temperature rising gradually and leading to a disruption in the lives of the people. Apart from this, there are problems of black carbon and soot (Ramanathan et al., 2008), aerosols and other natural disasters like locust attacks. (Noseworthy et al., 2014) (Peng et al., 2020). Researchers who are aligned to Pachauri’s report point out the fact that countries like Bangladesh are under threat of flooding (Hasnat et al., 2019). As a response to this measure, Hasnat et al 2019, proposed the usage of Surface Water and Ocean Topography. This is expected to mitigate the problems of flooding in Bangladesh.
Because of rising temperatures in South Asia, there has been an increase in the number of crop failures, forest fire, and livestock deaths indicating a threat to food security. As a measure to mitigate the problem, the measures of increasing soil fertility through agro-forestry have been undertaken which offers a good potential for good farming. We expect that this will be a precursor to a strong economy, which might help to reduce the problem of migration.
A fever that never heals
In this section, we will talk about Global Warming and a brief background of it.
Professor Wally Broecker of Columbia University commented that climate is an ill-tempered animal and we are poking it with sticks. Not a good gesture. Immanuel Kant says that the heart of a man is judged by how he treats an animal and when we judge ourselves on this parameter, human beings are seen as creatures without a heart.
Both quantitative and qualitative analyses bear strong evidence that climatic change and threats in South Asia largely remain under-researched (Nordqvist & Krampe, 2018). Hasnat et al., (2019) observe that the rapid growth of industrialization has led to the temperature being increased along with other anthropogenic activities. Abrahamson (1989) observes that the earth’s temperature has been increased by 0.5 to 0.7 C. This trend has been noticed since 1860 with a 1 C extra increase because of the greenhouse gases. The alarming fact that Abrahamson shares with us is the fact that past emissions can add significantly to the current temperature of the earth. It is estimated that the past emissions will increase the temperature of the earth by something between 1 to 2.4 C and this by the end of 2030 will lead to a global warming of at least 3 C which can even rise to 5 C.
It has been found that because of such things, the number of cold nights has decreased and the number of hot nights has increased.
Blistering days and Antsy nights:
In this section, we will talk about the gradual temperature rise and security threats to the nation as global warming increases. The region that we will be discussing here is mostly dependent on natural resources (Roser, 2013) and the unfortunate part of the story is that these are the people who are exposed to the maximum risk. The authors apprehend that because of climatic change, there will be a huge loss of income from agricultural resources and the people of such areas will be forced to resort to illegal sources of income which may sometimes take the form of pirate activities (Axbard, 2016). The pirate problem in Bangladesh is another example (Slodkowski, 2017). The Naxalite problem in India has been a long-standing issue, especially in the mining areas (Gupta & Sriram, 2018; Sen, 2019) which is seen as a result of environmental problems (Ali Beg, 2017). This was a direct threat to the security of the nation which kept on contributing to the existing levels of poverty. Towns became deserted as people started to live in the wilderness. One such example is Chhattisgarh where climate change is creating the hardest change (Verma, 2019) and hardships to human life. More people are compelled to switch professions, mostly to the illegal ways. One such area is Dantewara in Chattisgarh, where the police used to wear plain clothes and rebels used to wear khaki, civilians lived either in jails or in camps, while the rebels were roaming freely outside.
This is a threat to the security of the state which has been discussed at length by Arundhati Roy in her book ‘Walking with Comrades’.
Cutting it down:
Various attempts have been made by the nations to combat the problems of global warming. In this section, we will briefly review some of those measures.
The major responses that have been taken in this regard consist of risk reduction measures by the Government of Bangladesh. This measure aimed to minimize the risk of floods, inflated sea levels, effects of storms. One such example can be the increasing number of storms and cyclones in West Bengal (PTI reports, 2021) which is happening because of the declining vegetation of Mangrove vegetation. Unfortunately, a lack of resources is driving those programs null and void. Many of such programs have been stalled while underway.
While dealing with the same problems the Government of Maldives treated the same problems as a threat to national security (Chestney, 2018), and as Abdulla (2015) reports, Maldives lists agriculture, tourism, water, and fisheries as items that are vulnerable to climate change and many people related to these areas are rendered jobless.
Climatic Change and refugee problem:
Talking about the said issue, Stellina Jolly and Nafees Ahamad in their edited volume ‘Climate Researches in South Asia’ have shown that climatic susceptibility of South Asia is attributable to the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. The greatest risk is endured by the Mangrove vegetation areas and the Maldives. Afghanistan is reeling under a war crisis with 10% of the population experiencing the worst drought since 1971. According to the estimates of these authors, 3 million Pakistanis are on the verge of starvation which compels them to migrate to new areas for a livelihood. 1 million people in the bordering areas of the Thar deserts have migrated because a large number of livestock have perished, a reason attributed to climatic change.
A major issue concerning such climatic change is how the state has responded to it. Unfortunately, the authors observe a lack of sympathy from the governments while dealing with the issue. UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, and other governmental arrangements have been made to address the problem of migration but with a narrow and inadequate humanitarian approach. This is the gap that the current study will try to bridge by providing necessary inputs.
Global warming and the future days:
To form an idea of the future of global warming, Mark Maslin made an in-depth discussion in his book ‘Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction’. The importance of this book lies in the fact that it acts as a binocular in foreseeing the future. Maslin argues that global warming is an epic phenomenon that sets politicians fighting, nations conflicting, and lives deteriorating. It is estimated that the average temperature will increase by 1.4 – 5.8 C and the sea level is expected to rise by a meter. Though many scientists have predicted this to be the end of the world, the actual scenario is yet worse. Maslin observes that this situation might be a precursor to World War III. As a response to this, Maslin came up with two possible way-outs. First, we need to spend the money more judiciously for the betterment of the lives of the poor people. Secondly, a judicious use of the energy sources has been suggested with new research required to explore new ways. This prompts us to embark upon this journey to find improvised ways to combat evil.
Why Think About It
Global warming is an evil that is gradually nibbling the atmospheric balance. According to Nahar (2011), this arises from an imbalance between the GHGs. In the normal course of environmental balance, we observe the following distribution of gases in the following way:
The importance of these gases lie in the fact that they emit the same amount of heat they absorb. Any change in the concentration of these gases becomes a potential threat to atmospheric balance and becomes a precursor to global warming. It causes rapid climate change and as Nahar (2011) observes, a climatic change has been going on for the last 100 years. This is marked by the fact the average temperature of the earth’s low-surface air has increased by 0.74 ± 0.18°C with the earth absorbing 0.85 ± 0.15 w/m2 solar energy more than what it can radiate (Nahar, 2011). This trend has been observed for the last 165 years. Hence, a need is observed to mitigate the problem.
In this regard, Lal (2011) mentions that “multidisciplinary and inter-institutional studies are now needed throughout South Asia..” to cope with the issue of climatic change. But since we are dealing with global warming, the concerned we would like to substantiate the need for the current research in the following way.
An exhaustive survey and analysis of 3962 relevant documents will be done that will focus on the areas which have been studied extensively and which are the areas that have been left out. We will show the trend of research in the said area between 2017 and 2021 to substantiate his claim for the need for research and will present his findings from 3962 documents in a visual analysis.
The Burning Problem
South Asia has been an epicenter of climatic change and the most important disaster-prone zone in the world (Dahal et al., 2003). Hence, a proper response from the state is the call of the hour. Such a response should have a robust framework which is missing (Vld & Carlsson, 2010). Hence, a more focused study is required.
Global warming is the imbalance between heat absorbed by the earth and the heat radiated by it (Maslin, 2004). The problems arising from global warming are manifold. According to Maslin (2004), these threats can be summed up as:
i. an expected rise of sea level.
ii. increase in the number of floods and storms.
iii. declining food security leading to a food shortage by 2060.
Of all the problems that can have dire consequences, cross-border migration is treated as the most dangerous. In South Asia, this looms large with a huge number of illegal Bangladeshi migrants in West Bengal and Assam (Suba Chandran, 2013). These people are forced to migrate because of natural disasters and agricultural failures (Sharma, 2012) leading to deteriorated socio-economic conditions like human trafficking (Bhattacharyya A, Werz M. Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in South Asia: Rising Tensions and Policy Options Across the Subcontinent. Washington: Center for American Progress. 2012. – LSU Law Center: Climate Change Law and Policy Project, n.d.). Since the borders have been porous enough, the migrated populations entrap their original populations leading to more number of migrants triggering intense local tension in certain areas of Bengal and Assam (Kumar, 2009). This is a threat to security systems and a loss of social capital.
Discussion:
Global warming in one of its worst forms is most likely to give rise to climate refugees. Jolly and Ahmad (2019) observe that such situations give rise to intense critical conditions.
For example, the Abid Khan case which was a landmark case in the history of human refugee rights can be cited here. In this case, the Court of Bangladesh gave a clear indication to the Govt. of Bangladesh instructing the authorities to register the applicants as voters. But it took quite a long to get the decision, during which the applicants’ rights as citizens were revoked. Still today, these issues remain ‘vertically convoluted’ issues in the study of International Relations in South Asia.
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